Recently, a public opinion survey released by foreign media revealed the average price forecast for the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot aluminum market this year, providing important reference information for market participants. According to the survey, the median forecast for the average LME spot aluminum price this year by 33 participating analysts is $2574 per ton, which reflects the complex expectations of the market for aluminum price trends.
Looking back at the past year, London aluminum prices have achieved a 7% increase, which is partly attributed to the shortage of alumina supply. Aluminum oxide, as an important raw material in the aluminum industry chain, plays a crucial role in various fields such as packaging, transportation, and construction. However, supply shortages have led to market tightness, which in turn has driven up aluminum prices.
The supply and demand prospects of the aluminum market this year seem uncertain. Analysts point out that weak demand in the European region has become a major challenge facing the current market. Due to the slow pace of economic recovery and the impact of geopolitical situations, aluminum demand in Europe is showing a weak trend. At the same time, the US market is also facing potential demand pressure. The Trump administration’s hostile policies towards renewable energy and electric vehicles have raised concerns in the market about a possible decline in US aluminum demand. These two factors working together pose a downside risk to aluminum demand.
Despite facing challenges on the demand side, analysts expect new alumina supply to enter the market this year, which is expected to alleviate the current supply shortage. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the supply of alumina is expected to increase, thus balancing the market supply and demand relationship. The market remains cautious about this. On the one hand, there is still uncertainty about whether the new supply can be released as scheduled; On the other hand, even if the supply increases, it will take time to gradually balance the market supply and demand relationship, so there are still significant variables in the trend of aluminum prices.
In addition, analysts have also made predictions about the future supply and demand relationship in the aluminum market. It is expected that the supply gap in the aluminum market will reach 8000 tons by 2025, while previous surveys have shown an excess of 100000 tons of aluminum supply. This change indicates that the market’s perception of the supply and demand relationship in the aluminum market is changing, shifting from the previous expectation of oversupply to the expectation of supply shortage.
Post time: Feb-09-2025