Recently, there have been significant changes in the aluminum inventory data of the London Metal Exchange (LME), especially in the proportion of Russian and Indian aluminum inventory and the waiting time for delivery, which has attracted widespread attention in the market.
According to the latest data from LME, the Russian aluminum inventory (registered warehouse receipts) available for market use in LME warehouses decreased by 11% in December 2024 compared to November. The main reason for this change is that traders and consumers tend to avoid queuing up at Port Klang in Malaysia to purchase Indian aluminum when choosing aluminum sources. As of the end of December, the total amount of registered warehouse receipts for Russian aluminum was 163450 tons, accounting for 56% of the total LME aluminum inventory, which has significantly decreased compared to 254500 tons at the end of November, accounting for 67%.
At the same time, the number of aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts at LME Port Klang reached 239705 tons. Cancelling warehouse receipts usually refers to aluminum that has been extracted from the warehouse but has not yet been delivered to the buyer. An increase in this number may mean that there is more aluminum waiting to be delivered or in the process of being delivered. This further exacerbates market concerns about aluminum supply.
It is worth noting that although the inventory of Russian aluminum has decreased, the proportion of Indian aluminum in LME aluminum inventory is gradually increasing. As of the end of December, the registered warehouse receipts for Indian aluminum amounted to 120225 tons, accounting for 41% of the total LME aluminum inventory, up from 31% at the end of November. This change indicates that the market is seeking more aluminum sources to meet demand, and Indian aluminum may become an important alternative option.
With the changing structure of aluminum inventory, the waiting time for delivery is also increasing. As of the end of December, the waiting time for LME aluminum delivery has reached 163 days. This long wait not only increases transaction costs, but may also put some pressure on market supply, further pushing up aluminum prices.
The changes in LME aluminum inventory structure and the extension of waiting time for delivery are important market signals. These changes may reflect the growing demand for aluminum in the market, the tense situation on the supply side, and the substitution effect between different aluminum sources.
Post time: Jan-14-2025