On March 12, 2025, data released by Marubeni Corporation showed that as of the end of February 2025, the total aluminum inventory in Japan’s three major ports had dropped to 313400 tons, a decrease of 3.5% from the previous month and a new low since September 2022. Among them, Yokohama Port has a stock of 133400 tons (42.6%), Nagoya Port has 163000 tons (52.0%), and Osaka Port has 17000 tons (5.4%). This data reflects that the global aluminum supply chain is undergoing profound adjustments, with geopolitical risks and changes in industrial demand becoming the core drivers.
The primary reason for the decline in Japanese aluminum inventory is the unexpected rebound in domestic demand. Benefiting from the wave of electrification in automobiles, Toyota, Honda and other car companies saw a 28% year-on-year increase in aluminum body component procurement in February 2025, and Tesla Model Y’s market share in Japan expanded to 12%, further driving demand. In addition, the Japanese government’s “Green Industry Revitalization Plan” requires a 40% increase in the use of aluminum materials in the construction industry by 2027, promoting construction companies to stock up in advance.
Secondly, the global aluminum trade flow is undergoing a structural transformation. Due to the possibility of the United States imposing tariffs on imported aluminum, Japanese traders are accelerating the transportation of aluminum to Southeast Asian and European markets. According to data from Marubeni Corporation, Japan’s aluminum exports to countries such as Vietnam and Thailand increased by 57% year-on-year from January to February 2025, while the market share in the United States decreased from 18% in 2024 to 9%. This’ detour export ‘strategy has led to continuous depletion of inventory in Japanese ports.
The simultaneous decline in LME aluminum inventory (dropping to 142000 tons on March 11, the lowest level in nearly five years) and the fall of the US dollar index to 104.15 points (March 12) have also suppressed the willingness of Japanese importers to replenish their inventory. The Japan Aluminum Association estimates that the current import cost has increased by 12% compared to the same period in 2024, while the domestic spot aluminum price has only slightly increased by 3%. The narrowing price difference has led companies to tend to consume inventory and delay procurement.
In the short term, if the inventory of Japanese ports continues to decline below 100000 tons, it may trigger a demand for replenishment of LME Asian delivery warehouses, thereby supporting international aluminum prices. However, in the medium to long term, three risk points need to be paid attention to: firstly, the adjustment of Indonesia’s nickel ore export tax policy may affect the production cost of electrolytic aluminum; Secondly, the sudden change in trade policy before the US election may lead to another disruption of the global aluminum supply chain; Thirdly, the release rate of China’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity (expected to increase by 4 million tons by 2025) may alleviate the supply shortage.
Post time: Mar-18-2025