Recently, the European Union announced the 16th round of sanctions against Russia, including measures to ban the import of Russian primary aluminum. This decision quickly caused waves in the base metal market, with three-month copper and three-month aluminum prices on the LME (London Metal Exchange) rising.
According to the latest data, the price of LME three-month copper has risen to $9533 per ton, while the price of three-month aluminum has also reached $2707.50 per ton, both achieving a 1% increase. This market trend not only reflects the immediate response of the market to sanctions measures, but also reveals the impact of supply chain uncertainty and geopolitical risks on commodity prices.
The EU’s decision to sanction Rusal is undoubtedly a significant impact on the global aluminum market. Although the ban will be implemented in stages after one year, the market has already responded in advance. Analysts pointed out that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European buyers have spontaneously reduced their imports of Russian aluminum, leading to a sharp decline in Russia’s share of European primary aluminum imports, which is currently only 6%, about half the level in 2022.
It is worth noting that this gap in the European aluminum market has not led to a supply shortage. On the contrary, regions such as the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia quickly filled this gap and became important supply sources for the European aluminum market. This trend not only alleviates the supply pressure in the European market, but also demonstrates the flexibility and diversity of the global aluminum market.
Nevertheless, the EU’s sanctions against Rusal have had a profound impact on the global market. On the one hand, it exacerbates the uncertainty of the supply chain, making it more difficult for market participants to predict future supply situations; On the other hand, it also reminds market participants of the importance of geopolitical risks to commodity prices.
Post time: Feb-25-2025